Before October: China's export growth slowed down year-on-year

The year-on-year growth of China's exports has slowed down from January to October, but the overall trade volume still showed strong performance. The total value of China's imports and exports reached $239.31 billion, marking a 36.3% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth not only surpassed the previous year’s level but also saw both exports and imports exceed their full-year levels from the prior year. Specifically, exports totaled $127.059 billion, rising by 32.7%, while imports reached $112.282 billion, climbing 40.5%. The trade surplus stood at $14.777 billion, declining by 6.7% year-on-year. In October alone, China’s import and export value reached $24.481 billion, reflecting a 24% annual increase. Exports rose to $13.598 billion, up 22.9%—a slight slowdown compared to the previous month. Imports climbed to $10.883 billion, growing 25.3%, which was higher than the previous month. Notably, China’s monthly export growth rate has been on a downward trend for five consecutive months, dropping from 48.5% in May to 22.9% in October. Despite the challenges posed by the global economic crisis, the physical volume of exports has declined less than the value, indicating that Chinese enterprises have maintained their export capacity. Moreover, the share of major international markets has increased rather than decreased, which is crucial for the recovery of foreign trade. The global economic recovery has also driven a surge in the export of Chinese electromechanical equipment, closely tied to investment. In the first ten months, China exported $75.042 billion worth of electromechanical products, a 32.9% rise, slightly outpacing the overall export growth rate. These products accounted for 59.1% of total exports during the same period. Electrical and electronic products were valued at $30.942 billion, up 30.7%, while machinery and equipment exports reached $25.07 billion, increasing by 33.8%. Meanwhile, textile and apparel exports remained strong, with yarns, fabrics, and finished goods reaching $6.262 billion, up 29.4% year-on-year, though this was 1.3 percentage points lower than the previous nine months. Furniture exports hit $2.63 billion, rising 32.8%, and toy exports reached $0.84 billion, up 28.9%. Garment exports totaled $10.5 billion, increasing by 19.5%, while shoe exports reached $2.766 billion, up 26.4%. Baggage exports soared to $1.418 billion, a 39% increase. These trends suggest that certain industries are benefiting from the current market conditions, and their performance is reflected in the stock market. China has built a high-level industrial structure on a global scale, significantly reducing transaction costs and time. This gives the country a strong foundation to absorb pressures such as rising raw material prices, wage increases, and currency appreciation. This ability to absorb shocks is one of China’s key advantages over other emerging economies. Looking ahead, 2010 is expected to see a recovering growth trend in exports. However, this year’s export performance has shown a "high before, low after" pattern, with slower growth in the fourth quarter. China now ranks first in global export volume, surpassing Germany, which highlights its status as a major trading nation. Yet, when it comes to product structure and the industry's independent innovation and core competitiveness, China still lags behind true trade powers. To address this, China must focus on restructuring and shifting its growth model. The rapid decline in the proportion of labor-intensive products indicates a fundamental change in China’s economic resource structure. As monetary funds become cheaper, wages and resource prices continue to rise. The era of low-cost labor dividends is coming to an end. Since 2003, the shrinking working-age population has shifted the labor market from “infinite supply” to “limited surplus,” leading to higher labor costs and ultimately affecting product pricing. This year, labor and raw material costs have risen by more than 10%, and the cost of materials and transportation has surged. This has squeezed profit margins for foreign trade companies, weakening the international competitiveness of Chinese products. The government is gradually phasing out preferential policies for exports and foreign investment, aiming to balance resources between domestic and foreign sectors to achieve coordinated economic development. From the perspective of economic restructuring, China is working to reduce its reliance on foreign markets. Many of the stimulus measures introduced during the crisis to boost exports may no longer align with long-term structural goals. For example, several export tax rebate adjustments have been reversed, including the cancellation of export refunds for 406 types of goods, such as steel, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and non-ferrous metal processing materials. Some industries may face adverse effects as a result.

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